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The idea of it hitting the Mut 21 coins potential floor of $175M seems remote at best based on what I'm hearing, but I would still caution against people projecting the normal feeding frenzy at the onset of the league year that we have become accustomed to. I continue to view considerable signals that owners, stung by the pandemic as well as the inability to satisfy their revenue goals in 2020 and in 2021 as well, will be ready to hold the line more on paying and take aim at the NFL's middle class, and it might result in an offseason that closely resembles the drip-by-drip nature of baseball's offseason, rather than the normal pace of a typical hot stove season.

Even with long-term television contracts on the horizon, even if an owner was likely to want to bargain store in 2021 and string out the market, there are ample reasons (excuses?) for doing do. Uncertainty about the degree of fans in the stands at 2021, after having almost none in 2020, also having a limit stagnant at best and with the final details of the cap likely not being finalized until shortly before free service starts next year creates a possible climate for owners to sit back and wait, rather than rushing in with both hands, throwing around contracts to fulfill as many roll holes as possible a month from today.

A year ago, only half of the teams in the NFL really spent up to the salary cap; is there really reason, under these conditions, to project even that amount repeating, let alone a surge? Do we not believe there would be financial motivation to try and bide one's time in the hopes that an entire class of players that might normally make $3M-$5M could be had for close to $1M? There is going to be a rash of players stuck awaiting the best one-year, prove-it bargain they can muster, I would contend, and a few might begin grabbing the small bird in hand sooner instead of later.

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The team of teams who seem to be clear spenders isn't all that long. The Eagles and Saints have fueled that fire in the past few decades, but both are coping with significant cap difficulties and will not be able to push the industry anything near to what we've observed in the past. The Patriots have as much cap space and roster flexibility as anybody, but do we actually think Bill Belichick will go hog wild throwing around best-of-breed money and resetting the market at multiple places? The Falcons and Rams -- also never averse to creating new norms in spending at certain positions -- have more or less made their beds for 2021. The Cowboys could be hamstrung by a quarterback on another franchise tag counting near $40M against their cap via most, if not all, of their offseason.

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